The price of Bitcoin fluctuated in the range $73,777-$49,000 over the past seven month, causing a depressing effect on sentiment. Will Clemente III of Reflexivity Research published a new report via X. addresses The investor’s current mood of uncertainty and impatience, explaining why he is still bullish.
Clemente’s bullish outlook is based on a longer-term view of the future. next decade. Clemente, who is an expert in asset allocation and portfolio construction, stressed the importance of identifying the major economic trends that are likely to emerge over the next decade. next decade. “Been thinking a lot about portfolio construction lately and position sizing. I keep coming back to there’s nothing I’d rather go into a coma for 10 years and hold than Bitcoin,” Clemente emphasized his belief in Bitcoin, a superior asset for the long term.
The basis of his analysis lies in macroeconomic predictions. Clemente recommends that investors consider which trends will be the most important over the coming years. next Adjust their portfolios accordingly. This means either increasing investments in the most confident trend, or spreading them across a number of promising trends.
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He personally prefers focusing his attention on the likely trend. This he defines as the continuing growth of US deficit The government will then be forced to devalue the currency as a way to pay back the debt. Clemente says that the outcome of this scenario is more predictable than any other technology. trends like AI Or space exploration.
“Compared to other technological trends, the debasement one is pure math. In addition, the way to bet on other technological trends, for example AI or space, isn’t as clear as debasement, given there’s not a way to position for it as clear as Bitcoin,” Clemente writes.
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Clemente’s optimistic stance toward Bitcoin is reinforced by the analysis he has done of capital flows from pension and sovereign funds. If these institutions were to invest just 1% in Bitcoin, he estimates it could result in $460 billion worth of new investment, potentially double its market cap, and push prices between $150,000-$200,000.
He speculated further on the potential impact of a higher allocation. If concerns regarding the deficit increase, these institutions may allocate as much as 3 percent, which would translate to $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. But the upside is much greater. “What happens if it eats into the $10t-$15t of gold’s monetary premium? How about the combined monetary premium in treasuries/equities/real estate that’s currently parked into these assets as SoV to protect against currency debasement?” Clemente pondered.
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Clemente concluded his analysis by stating that, when considering the diminished purchasing power of dollars, a Bitcoin price of $1 million per coin in 2034 was not impossible. “Also would like to sprinkle on top that this is not factoring in dollars being worth significantly less in the future due to debasement, so $1mm BTC in 2034 is not as crazy as $1mm BTC in 2024,” Analyst remarked.
Clemente has also admitted that. “I do think Bitcoin’s days of 100%+ CAGR are gone, but that’s not to say it won’t outperform equity indices by a lot — and on a confidence-adjusted basis, I don’t see anything as compelling in the marketplace today.”
BTC is currently trading for $56,481.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com