A recent analysisPeter Brandt, a veteran trader, analyzed the behavior of Bitcoin’s price, and suggested that it might be at its current peak. Brandt claims that Bitcoin shows signs of “Exponential Decay,” The bull market has been waning over the past few years.
“Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped? It’s called Exponential Decay — and it describes Bitcoin,” Brandt wrote. Brandt continued to explain. “The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years… I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin — Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.”
Brandt gave a breakdown of Bitcoin bull cycles over the years, noting that there has been a steady decline in Bitcoin prices. magnitude of gains:
- A staggering 3191X growth was seen in the bull cycle between December 21, 2009. and June 6, 2011.
- From November 14, 2011 to November 25, 2013 the cycle showed an impressive but reduced 572X increase.
- From August 17, 2015 to December 18, 2017 there was a further 122X decline.
- In recent years, from November 8 to December 10 of 2018, the cycle saw a mere 22X increase.
Bitcoin reached its cycle peak with a probability of 25%
Brandt concluded that these patterns are a reflection of the future. current cycle, This period, which started on November 21, 20,22, is expected to see a gain of approximately 4.5X from the low price of $15,473, with a possible high around $72,723. Note that this price peak is already almost met, with $73,835 being recorded in March 2024. Brandt cautions against this conclusion. “The magnitude of each bull cycle has been roughly 20% of its predecessor, indicating significant energy loss.”
Brandt is not afraid to address the consequences of Bitcoin’s halving eventsPrice increases have been historically triggered by. In spite of this, he insists on the unmistakable decay pattern. “But for now, we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.”
Brandt, in a communications on X reacted to a counter-analysis by analyst @Giovann35084111 who argued Bitcoin follows a Power Law over time. The argument suggested the potential for continued growth despite decay. Brandt accepted the validity. “Quite a thorough analysis,” Brand comments
A thorough and detailed analysis https://t.co/hiSogUtEkt
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 29, 2024
This analysis by @Giovann35084111 extends past cyclical patterns, illustrating that deviations from power laws at certain intervals, notably around halvings events, creates a structure prediction model. The approach identifies systematic patterns of Bitcoin price movement, which reinforces a bullish view. The analyst estimates the price of Bitcoin to rise significantly. next The top end at the year 2025 is expected to be between $210,000 and $25,000.
Brandt clarified in an earlier post that the main predictor of his is a ongoing bull market into September/October 2025. He explained, “I give more credence to a report I issued in February. Here is a chart from that analysis — projecting a bull market until Sep/Oct 2025,” Indicating that his opinions are influenced both by changing market data and theory models.
BTC is currently trading for $62,450.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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