Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin Has defended the inclusion a Hezbollah wagering section on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform.
On Oct. 1, post on X, Buterin pointed out that many individuals, including elites, make harmful and inaccurate predictions about conflicts on platforms like Twitter.
According to him, knowing whether or not people have a financial stake It is valuable to know whether an event will happen if you believe it has a 50% or 2% chance. This helps, according to him, maintain rationality even in the face misinformation.
He said:
“It’s not about ‘[making] money from bad stuff happening,’ it’s about creating an environment where speech has consequences (so both unjustified fearmongering and unjustified complacency are punished), without relying on governmental or corporate censors.”
Polymarket’s Hezbollah-related markets Allow users to download and install the app bet on events Like whether Israel invades Lebanon in a specific timeframe, if there will be a ceasefire, or if US military forces will intervene within this year. At the time of publication, this market had recorded a trading volume in excess $7 million.
‘Soft caps’
Meanwhile, Chainlink Zach Rynes, community liaison raised concerns He warned about the dangers associated with prediction markets and assassination betting. He suggested large and influential markets might incentivize actual actions to manipulate outcomes.
Buterin said that he was against these markets. He said that he would not support markets which act as primary incentives for damaging actions and enable insider trading.
Rynes, on the other hand, highlighted how any market that predicts events with influence could encourage harmful behavior if there is enough liquidity involved.
“Even if it wasn’t the original intention, highly liquid markets could subsidize war,” Rynes argued. “Prediction markets aren’t passive observers—they can influence outcomes when they scale.”
Buterin responded by proposing soft caps for market sizes on platforms such as Polymarket. Buterin proposed a structure of fees that increase in proportion to the market size as it approaches the cap. The proceeds from this fee would be used for socially useful markets and low volume organic volumes.
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Source: cryptoslate.com